Avramov, Stevan

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Comparative analysis of different strategies for the control of classical swine fever in the Republic of Serbia using Monte Carlo simulation

Stanojević, Slavoljub; Valčić, Miroslav; Radojičić, Sonja; Stanojević, Slobodan; Avramov, Stevan; Lazić, Sava; Mišić, Dušan

(Naučni institut za veterinarstvo "Novi Sad", Novi Sad, 2016)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stanojević, Slavoljub
AU  - Valčić, Miroslav
AU  - Radojičić, Sonja
AU  - Stanojević, Slobodan
AU  - Avramov, Stevan
AU  - Lazić, Sava
AU  - Mišić, Dušan
PY  - 2016
UR  - https://vet-erinar.vet.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1328
AB  - Several different strategies for control and eradication of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) were compared using a Monte Carlo method-based simulation model. The control strategy analyzed in this paper, in addition to other CSF control measures, includes application of biosecurity measures on pig farms and rural backyard holdings. Elements of the control strategy are based on applicable regulations and include the simulation of detection of the disease, setting up the protected and surveillance zones, standstill of pig movements and restricted movement of animals, vehicles, equipment, and people with strong control measures in protection and surveillance zones, euthanasia of susceptible pigs, protective vaccination of pigs, compensation etc. During the simulation, different output parameters were compared such as: duration of epizootic of a disease, number of affected holdings and animals, direct costs such as those for dead or culled animals, costs of surveillance, disposal of infectious materials, cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation of affected animals with early diagnostics and vaccination in protection and surveillance zone proved to be the most effective measures to stop spreading and eradication of the disease. However, during the simulation, systematic implementation of biosecurity measures in all pig production clusters demonstrated to be appropriate strategy for sustainable control of CSF and setting up a stable epizootiological situation.
AB  - Nekoliko različitih strategija za kontrolu i iskorenjivanje klasične kuge svinja je upoređivano primenom modela simulacije zasnovanog na Monte Karlo metodi. Kontrolne strategije koje su obrađivane u ovom radu, pored opštih i posebnih mera suzbijanja KKS, uključuju i različite nivoe primenjenih biosigurnosnih mera na komercijalnim, porodičnim farmama i seoskim gazdinstvima na kojima se ga je svinje. Mere neškodljivog uništavanja obolelih životinja i životinja koje su bile u kontaktu sa obolelim životinjama, uspostavljanje zaštitnih zona pod nadzorom, kontrola i zaustavljanje prometa životinja i mehaničkih vektora (vozila i ljudi) unutar zona, rano otkrivanje bolesti i mera vakcinacije su bile uključene u simulaciju. Izlazni parametri kao što su: vreme trajanja epizootije, broj zaraženih gazdinstava i životinja, broj uništenih životinja, troškovi nadzora i direktne štete nastale zbog pojavljivanja bolesti s upoređivani tokom simulacije. Vakcinacija, neškodljivo uklanjanje obolelih životinja i rana dijagnostika su se pokazale kao najefektivnije mere zaustavljanja širenja i iskorenjivanja bolesti. Međutim, kao mera dugoročne strategije kontrole KKS i uspostavljanja stabilne epizootiološke situacije, tokom simulacije pokazala se mera planskog i sistematskog podizanja biosigurnosnih mera u svim klasterima proizvodnje svinja (komercijalne farme, porodične farme tipa A, porodične farme tipa B i seoska gazdinstva).
PB  - Naučni institut za veterinarstvo "Novi Sad", Novi Sad
T2  - Arhiv veterinarske medicine
T1  - Comparative analysis of different strategies for the control of classical swine fever in the Republic of Serbia using Monte Carlo simulation
T1  - Komparativna analiza različitih strategija za kontrolu klasične svinjske kuge upotrebom Monte Carlo simulacije
VL  - 9
IS  - 1
SP  - 43
EP  - 59
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_veterinar_1328
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Stanojević, Slavoljub and Valčić, Miroslav and Radojičić, Sonja and Stanojević, Slobodan and Avramov, Stevan and Lazić, Sava and Mišić, Dušan",
year = "2016",
abstract = "Several different strategies for control and eradication of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) were compared using a Monte Carlo method-based simulation model. The control strategy analyzed in this paper, in addition to other CSF control measures, includes application of biosecurity measures on pig farms and rural backyard holdings. Elements of the control strategy are based on applicable regulations and include the simulation of detection of the disease, setting up the protected and surveillance zones, standstill of pig movements and restricted movement of animals, vehicles, equipment, and people with strong control measures in protection and surveillance zones, euthanasia of susceptible pigs, protective vaccination of pigs, compensation etc. During the simulation, different output parameters were compared such as: duration of epizootic of a disease, number of affected holdings and animals, direct costs such as those for dead or culled animals, costs of surveillance, disposal of infectious materials, cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation of affected animals with early diagnostics and vaccination in protection and surveillance zone proved to be the most effective measures to stop spreading and eradication of the disease. However, during the simulation, systematic implementation of biosecurity measures in all pig production clusters demonstrated to be appropriate strategy for sustainable control of CSF and setting up a stable epizootiological situation., Nekoliko različitih strategija za kontrolu i iskorenjivanje klasične kuge svinja je upoređivano primenom modela simulacije zasnovanog na Monte Karlo metodi. Kontrolne strategije koje su obrađivane u ovom radu, pored opštih i posebnih mera suzbijanja KKS, uključuju i različite nivoe primenjenih biosigurnosnih mera na komercijalnim, porodičnim farmama i seoskim gazdinstvima na kojima se ga je svinje. Mere neškodljivog uništavanja obolelih životinja i životinja koje su bile u kontaktu sa obolelim životinjama, uspostavljanje zaštitnih zona pod nadzorom, kontrola i zaustavljanje prometa životinja i mehaničkih vektora (vozila i ljudi) unutar zona, rano otkrivanje bolesti i mera vakcinacije su bile uključene u simulaciju. Izlazni parametri kao što su: vreme trajanja epizootije, broj zaraženih gazdinstava i životinja, broj uništenih životinja, troškovi nadzora i direktne štete nastale zbog pojavljivanja bolesti s upoređivani tokom simulacije. Vakcinacija, neškodljivo uklanjanje obolelih životinja i rana dijagnostika su se pokazale kao najefektivnije mere zaustavljanja širenja i iskorenjivanja bolesti. Međutim, kao mera dugoročne strategije kontrole KKS i uspostavljanja stabilne epizootiološke situacije, tokom simulacije pokazala se mera planskog i sistematskog podizanja biosigurnosnih mera u svim klasterima proizvodnje svinja (komercijalne farme, porodične farme tipa A, porodične farme tipa B i seoska gazdinstva).",
publisher = "Naučni institut za veterinarstvo "Novi Sad", Novi Sad",
journal = "Arhiv veterinarske medicine",
title = "Comparative analysis of different strategies for the control of classical swine fever in the Republic of Serbia using Monte Carlo simulation, Komparativna analiza različitih strategija za kontrolu klasične svinjske kuge upotrebom Monte Carlo simulacije",
volume = "9",
number = "1",
pages = "43-59",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_veterinar_1328"
}
Stanojević, S., Valčić, M., Radojičić, S., Stanojević, S., Avramov, S., Lazić, S.,& Mišić, D.. (2016). Comparative analysis of different strategies for the control of classical swine fever in the Republic of Serbia using Monte Carlo simulation. in Arhiv veterinarske medicine
Naučni institut za veterinarstvo "Novi Sad", Novi Sad., 9(1), 43-59.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_veterinar_1328
Stanojević S, Valčić M, Radojičić S, Stanojević S, Avramov S, Lazić S, Mišić D. Comparative analysis of different strategies for the control of classical swine fever in the Republic of Serbia using Monte Carlo simulation. in Arhiv veterinarske medicine. 2016;9(1):43-59.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_veterinar_1328 .
Stanojević, Slavoljub, Valčić, Miroslav, Radojičić, Sonja, Stanojević, Slobodan, Avramov, Stevan, Lazić, Sava, Mišić, Dušan, "Comparative analysis of different strategies for the control of classical swine fever in the Republic of Serbia using Monte Carlo simulation" in Arhiv veterinarske medicine, 9, no. 1 (2016):43-59,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_veterinar_1328 .