| dc.description.abstract | Several factors have led to a decline in autochthonous breeds, and the
need for conservation programs based on risk assessment has increased. The aim of
the study was to compare and validate two models for risk assessment of local
small ruminant breeds in Serbia. The first model considered only the effective
population size (Ne), while the alternative model included Ne, the number of
females and sub-factors representing the influence of different elements. The
results indicate an increasing trend in most breeds and populations over the last
five years, with the exception of Tsigai and Chokan Tsigai, which showed a
decrease. However, the increasing trend is insufficient, especially for Pirot,
Karakachan, and Bardoka, as well as for the Domestic (Serbian) white goat, which
is classified as critically endangered in both models. Vlashko vitoroga, Chokan
tsigai, and the Balkan goat were at high risk. The models produced different results
for the Krivovir, Sjenica, and Svrljig strains. In the first model, Krivovir was
classified as potentially endangered, whereas Sjenica and Svrljig were not. In the
second model, Krivovir was classified as highly and the other two strains as
potentially endangered. These differences are due to the additional factors in the
second model, which lead to a more comprehensive assessment for future risk
assessments. Although the new model is appropriate for Serbia, it is important to
test it on a variety of native species to increase confidence. Future conservation
programs should also include genetic characterization and implement adaptive
models to obtain more reliable conclusions. | sr |
