Comparative analysis of different strategies for the control of classical swine fever in the Republic of Serbia using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Several different strategies for control and eradication of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) were compared using a Monte Carlo method-based simulation model. The control strategy analyzed in this paper, in addition to other CSF control measures, includes application of biosecurity measures on pig farms and rural backyard holdings. Elements of the control strategy are based on applicable regulations and include the simulation of detection of the disease, setting up the protected and surveillance zones, standstill of pig movements and restricted movement of animals, vehicles, equipment, and people with strong control measures in protection and surveillance zones, euthanasia of susceptible pigs, protective vaccination of pigs, compensation etc. During the simulation, different output parameters were compared such as: duration of epizootic of a disease, number of affected holdings and animals, direct costs such as those for dead or culled animals, costs of surveillance, disposal of infectious materials, cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation of affected animals with early diagnostics and vaccination in protection and surveillance zone proved to be the most effective measures to stop spreading and eradication of the disease. However, during the simulation, systematic implementation of biosecurity measures in all pig production clusters demonstrated to be appropriate strategy for sustainable control of CSF and setting up a stable epizootiological situation.

Nekoliko različitih strategija za kontrolu i iskorenjivanje klasične kuge svinja je upoređivano primenom modela simulacije zasnovanog na Monte Karlo metodi. Kontrolne strategije koje su obrađivane u ovom radu, pored opštih i posebnih mera suzbijanja KKS, uključuju i različite nivoe primenjenih biosigurnosnih mera na komercijalnim, porodičnim farmama i seoskim gazdinstvima na kojima se ga je svinje. Mere neškodljivog uništavanja obolelih životinja i životinja koje su bile u kontaktu sa obolelim životinjama, uspostavljanje zaštitnih zona pod nadzorom, kontrola i zaustavljanje prometa životinja i mehaničkih vektora (vozila i ljudi) unutar zona, rano otkrivanje bolesti i mera vakcinacije su bile uključene u simulaciju. Izlazni parametri kao što su: vreme trajanja epizootije, broj zaraženih gazdinstava i životinja, broj uništenih životinja, troškovi nadzora i direktne štete nastale zbog pojavljivanja bolesti s upoređivani tokom simulacije. Vakcinacija, neškodljivo uklanjanje obolelih životinja i rana dijagnostika su se pokazale kao najefektivnije mere zaustavljanja širenja i iskorenjivanja bolesti. Međutim, kao mera dugoročne strategije kontrole KKS i uspostavljanja stabilne epizootiološke situacije, tokom simulacije pokazala se mera planskog i sistematskog podizanja biosigurnosnih mera u svim klasterima proizvodnje svinja (komercijalne farme, porodične farme tipa A, porodične farme tipa B i seoska gazdinstva).