@conference{
author = "Đurić, Spomenka and Vejnović, Branislav and Nedić, Drago and Teodorović, Radislava and Janjić, Jelena and Nikolić, Aleksandra and Mirilović, Milorad",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Strategija borbe protiv BTV se bazira na depopulaciji obolelih životinja
u zaraženim područjima, najčešće u kombinaciji sa vakcinacijom i
uvođenjem visokih biosigurnosnih mera na farmama i u objektima u
kojima se drže životinje. Primenom ovakvih mera može se obezbediti
odsustvo bolesti većih razmera. Zbog značajnog uticaja klimatskih
faktora na pojavljivenje i širenje vektora bolesti, samog načina držanja
prijemčivih životinja kao i zoohigijenskih i biosigurnosnih mera, ne
postoji univerzalni obrazac kontrole BTV.
Osnovni cilj je razvijanje i primena stohastičkog modela, koji međusobno
povezuje klimatske faktore, populaciju vektora, prijemčive domaćine
i mere intervencije, odnosno mere kontrole BPJ. Model simulira
dnevno prenošenje bolesti vektorima kroz prijemčivu populaciju, a
sam intenzitet prenošenja, odnosno brojnost i vektorski kapacitet
uslovljeni su klimatskim faktorima, odnosno dnevnim promenama
prosečne temperature. Model je uprošćeno preslikavanje (prikazivanje) stvarnog okruženja,
procesa ili sistema. U osnovi, model ima za cilj da na osnovu iskustva,
prikupljenih podataka, mišljenja i naliza eksperata, predstavi stvarni
sistem, fenomen ili određenu pojavu. Izbor modela svakako zavisi
od potreba, vremena u kome je potrebno doneti neku odluku, vrste
ispitivanja, potrebe za što preciznijim rezultatima, raspoloživim podacima
i finansijskim sredstvima
Analizirani model odnosa dobiti i troškova ima pozitivan ekonomski efekat
jer je ustanovljena pozitivna neto sadašnja vrednost (NSV=110.363.000,88
dinara), parametar CBR iznosi 1,03, dok je na osnovu interne stope
povraćaja (ISPS=6,70) ustanovljeno da bi ovaj model programa za rano
otkrivanje, dijagnostiku, sprečavanje širenja, suzbijanje i iskorenjivanje
zarazne bolesti plavog jezika na teritoriji Republike Srbije ekonomski
bio opravdan sve dok kamatna stopa na godišnjem nivou ne bi prelazila
6,70%., The strategy to combat BTV is based on the depopulation of infected
animals in infected areas, most often in combination with vaccination
and the introduction of high biosecurity measures on farms and in
facilities where animals are kept. The application of such measures
can ensure the absence of large-scale diseases. Because of to the
significant influence of climatic factors on the emergence and spread
of disease vectors, the very way of keeping receptive animals as well
as zoohygienic and biosecurity measures, there is no universal pattern
of control of BTV.
The main goal is to develop and apply a stochastic model, which
interconnects climatic factors, vector populations, receptive hosts and
intervention measures, ie BPJ control measures. The model simulates
the daily transmission of disease by vectors through a susceptible
population, and the intensity of transmission, ie the number and vector capacity are conditioned by climatic factors, that is, daily changes in
average temperature.
A model is a simplified mapping (representation) of an actual
environment, process, or system. Basically, the model aims to present
an actual system, phenomenon or a certain phenomenon based on
experience, collected data, opinions and analyzes of experts. The
choice of model certainly depends on the needs, the time in which it
is necessary to make a decision, the type of testing, the need for the
most accurate results, available data and financial resources.
The analyzed model of the ratio of profit and costs has a positive
economic effect because a positive net present value was established
(NSV = 110,363,000.88 dinars), the CBR parameter is 1.03, while based
on the internal rate of return (ISPS = 6.70) it was established that this
model program for early detection, diagnosis, prevention of spread,
control and eradication of infectious bluetongue in the territory of the
Republic of Serbia would be economically justified until the annual
interest rate would not exceed 6.70%.",
publisher = "Banja Luka : Veterinarska komora Republike Srpske",
journal = "27. Godišnje savjetovanje doktora veterinarske medicine Republike Srpske (Bosna i Hercegovina), Trebinje, 15 - 18. jun 2022",
title = "Analiza troškova i dobiti modela za kontrolu i iskorenjivanje bolesti plavog jezika u Republici Srbiji, Cost-benefit analysis of the model for control and eradication of Bluetongue diseases in the Republic of Serbia",
pages = "115-118",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_veterinar_2964"
}
